the resource problem
Clean energy resources are more and more unstable, as the effects of climate volatility increase with temperature. Across the globe, hydro resources are shifting locations and intensity profiles.
The distribution of fixed sunk debt (dams and hydroelectric) and the resources have diverged completely from the distribution at the time of deployment. This is accelerating.
hydropower supplies majority of the world’s renewable energy, but renewable resources have become extremely variable and volatile with climate change
renewable energy needs a redesign
smarter renewable energy design is critical to viable climate mitigation and adaptation
what does that look like in practice?
The resources are mobile. Demand is variable. Without equipment mobility, current resource risk has and will induce ever greater economic risk and instability in renewable energy projects, leading to abandoned assets and the need for ever more capacity to make up for the divergence between planned and actual performance.
Volatility is not just a geospatial problem for clean energy. Temporal volatility has significant performance effects which are hidden by the propensity to perform mean analyses which mathematically serve to damp evidence of volatility and thereby reduce landscape understanding.
Fixed 30 year lifetime equipment design in volatile conditions induce severe economic risks and ROI failure, both economically and societally.
All resource and demand volatility affects utilization rates and thereby damages debt payment capability. Maximizing utilization maximizes profit. Poor utilization leads to losses and stranded assets. This an economic law, that is generally ignored in energy planning.
The economic methodology applied to energy is incomplete and oversimplified by mean analytical methods such as LCOE which do little to characterize the actual operating economics of the systems or its market positioning. Fundamental problems with the economic understanding have led to wide deployment of systems that have distinct critical failure point related to climate volatility they failed to solve or even effect in the slightest. In 20 years there has been no reductive effect on the Fossil share or GHG growth rates.
If a product lacks the necessary features to leverage the landscape, it will fail at a rate in direct proportion to the divergence from the optimal. Product penetration is wholly dependent of having the right the properties necessary for share penetration. which in turn is wholly dependent on understanding the properties of the landscape. 20 year with no results means the properties are misunderstood.